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Modeling and Applied Research in Sustainable Development

Xiangyu Zeng and Zhezhao Zeng

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: We develop an algebraic polynomial model to measure and compare the sustainability in 4 countries after studying existing sustainable development index systems. The model consists of three facets of indicators: natural resources reserve, environment carrying capacity and social welfare level. We use recursive least-squares method (RLS) to determine the parameters of the fitted model and apply this model to design a sustainable development plan for Tanzania. Considering the country profile and model testing results, the plan comprises of five programs: producing clean water, generating electricity, improving transport conditions, developing tourism industry and advancing medical and health services. Finally we predict the change of each indicator in the next two decades and compare the results under natural state, finding that the sustainability of Tanzania will increase.

Keywords: recursive least-squares method (RLS); sustainability hierarchy; development project of Tanzania (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 O22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-07-29, Revised 2015-08-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
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Forthcoming in Ecological Economy 163.12(2015): pp. 28-39

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