Looking into the Black Box of Boosting: The Case of Germany

Robert Lehmann and Klaus Wohlrabe

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper looks into the 'fine print' of boosting for economic forecasting. By using German industrial production for the period from 1996 to 2014 and a data set consisting of 175 monthly indicators, we evaluate which indicators get selected by the boosting algorithm over time and four different forecasting horizons. It turns out that a number of hard indicators like turnovers, as well as a small number of survey results, get selected frequently by the algorithm and are therefore important to forecasting the performance of the German economy. However, there are indicators such as money supply that never get chosen by the boosting approach at all.

Keywords: boosting; economic forecasting; industrial production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-11-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67608/1/MPRA_paper_67608.pdf original version (application/pdf)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/67628/1/MPRA_paper_67608.pdf revised version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Looking into the black box of boosting: the case of Germany (2016)
Working Paper: Looking into the black box of boosting: the case of Germany (2016)
Working Paper: Looking into the Black Box of Boosting: The Case of Germany (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:67608

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().