Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics

Ioannis Chatziantoniou, Stavros Degiannakis, Bruno Eeckels and George Filis

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income, but also, given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policy makers in Greece.

Keywords: Tourist arrivals forecasting; seasonal ARIMA; Diebold-Mariano test; disaggregated data; macroeconomic indicators. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 F19 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-11-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-tur
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Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:68062

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