Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

Robert Lehmann and Klaus Wohlrabe

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: In this paper, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluate the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer, to predict unemployment changes. Since the Ifo Employment Barometer focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the Ifo Employment Barometer outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers’ unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: survey data; employment forecasts; model confidence set (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 E24 E27 J00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-02-19
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:69611

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