The European refugee crisis and the natural rate of output

Katja Heinisch and Klaus Wohlrabe

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The European Commission follows a harmonized approach for calculating structural (potential) output for EU member states that takes into account labor as an important ingredient. This paper shows how the recent huge migrants inflow to Europe affects trend output. Due to the fact that the immigrants immediately increase the working population but effectively do not enter the labor market, we illustrate that the potential output is potentially upward biased without any corrections. Taking Germany as an example, we find that the average medium-term potential growth rate is lower if the migration flow is modeled adequately compared to results based on the unadjusted European Commission procedure.

Keywords: migration; refugee crisis; natural rate of output; filtering; EU-commission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J11 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-11-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-mig
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74905/1/MPRA_paper_74905.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The European refugee crisis and the natural rate of output (2017)
Working Paper: The European refugee crisis and the natural rate of output (2016)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:74905

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().