Impacts of Donald Trump’s Tariff Increase against China on Global Economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model

Saiful Alim Rosyadi () and Tri Widodo ()

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper aims to analyze the possible impacts of the US import tariff against China on global economy. The GTAP model is implemented. The simulation scenarios depicted short-run effects of full-protection and manufacturing protection with appropriate retaliation response from China. On global level, the policy was projected to lead to decline in GDP, terms-of-trade, and welfare; and increase in trade balance for United States and China. Trade diversion phenomena would occur, predicting steep decline in bilateral trade between the two countries and increasing export towards their third trading partners.

Keywords: Donald Trump; Tariff Increase; GTAP Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-05-29
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-int
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:79493

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