The Recurrence of Long Cycles: Theories, Stylized Facts and Figures

Lefteris Tsoulfidis () and Aris Papageorgiou

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Basic innovations and their diffusion, the expansion or contraction of the level of economic activity and the volume of international trade, rising sovereign debts and their defaults, conflicts and the outbreak of wars, are some of the major phenomena appearing during the downswing or upswing phases of long cycles. In this article, we examine the extent to which these phenomena constitute stylized facts of the different phases of long cycles which recur quite regularly in the turbulent economic history of capitalism. The main argument of this paper is that the evolution of long cycles is a result of the long-run movement of profitability. During the downswing of a long cycle, falling profitability induces innovation investment and the associated with it 'creative destruction' of the capital stock that eventually set the stage for the upswing phase of a new long cycle.

Keywords: Long; Cycles; Innovations; Profit; rate; Logistic; regression; Stagnation; Kondratiev; Schumpeter (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: B14 B25 E11 E3 E32 N0 N1 N10 O3 O31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-06-10, Revised 2017-11-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-hme, nep-hpe and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Related works:
Working Paper: The Recurrence of Long Cycles: Theories, Stylized Facts and Figures (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:82853

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