Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region

Khalid Ahmed, Niaz Ahmed Bhutto and Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study examines the impact of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables (i.e., real GDP, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate) for five SAARC countries (i.e., India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Bhutan). For this purpose, we adopt contemporary macroeconomic policy modeling tool called impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition method (FEVDM) in the structural vector autorepression (SVAR) setting using time series data over the extended period from 1982 to 2014. In addition, Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration method is applied for long-run relationship. The results of cointegration test confirms the long-run equilibrium relationship between all the underlying variables. However, the empirical findings of IRF explained significant variation among all underlying macroeconomic variables in response to exogenous oil price shocks at different time horizons. It means the macroeconomic factors are sensitive to even small oil price shocks and possess various socio-economic implications in the region. The results of FEVDM evidence that each country in a study group responds differently to oil price shocks, it corresponds their independent policies, macroeconomic fundamentals, sector constructions and heterogeneity across the countries. The findings help governments to reform public policies in the region by controlling macroeconomic fluctuations due to oil price shocks.

Keywords: Oil price shocks; Interest rate; GDP; SAARC; SVAR model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 E20 E4 E64 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-11-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Journal Article: Decomposing the links between oil price shocks and macroeconomic indicators: Evidence from SAARC region (2019)
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