Is Nigeria's economy progressing or backsliding? Implications from ARIMA models

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: Using annual time series data on GDP per capita in Nigeria from 1960 to 2017, I model and forecast GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. My diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Nigerian GDP per capita data is I (1). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented optimal model is stable and hence reliable. The results of the study indicate that living standards in Nigeria will tumble over the next decade, as long as the current economic policy stance is not reviewed. Indeed, Nigeria’s economy is backsliding again!!! In order to improve the living standards of an ordinary Nigerian, this study has put forward four-fold policy prescriptions.

Keywords: GDP per capita; forecasting; Nigeria (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E37 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-01-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:91396

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