Forecasting UK consumer price index using Box-Jenkins ARIMA models

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This research uses annual time series data on CPI in the UK from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the K series is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model for predicting CPI in the UK. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in the UK is likely to continue on a sharp upwards trajectory in the next decade. The study basically encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in the UK.

Keywords: Forecasting; Inflation; UK (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:92410

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