Modeling and forecasting inflation in Philippines using ARIMA models

Thabani Nyoni

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This research uses annual time series data on inflation rates in the Philippines from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast inflation using ARIMA models. Diagnostic tests indicate that P is I(1). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 3). The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model is stable and acceptable for predicting inflation in the Philippines. The results of the study apparently show that P will fall down from 5.6% in 2018 to approximately 0.3% in 2027. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to continue implementing it inflation targeting policy framework since it proves to work well for the economy.

Keywords: Forecasting; Inflation; Philippines (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 E47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-02-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-sea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:92429

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