High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms

Dimitris Korobilis

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This paper proposes two distinct contributions to econometric analysis of large information sets and structural instabilities. First, it treats a regression model with time-varying coefficients, stochastic volatility and exogenous predictors, as an equivalent high-dimensional static regression problem with thousands of covariates. Inference in this specification proceeds using Bayesian hierarchical priors that shrink the high-dimensional vector of coefficients either towards zero or time-invariance. Second, it introduces the frameworks of factor graphs and message passing as a means of designing efficient Bayesian estimation algorithms. In particular, a Generalized Approximate Message Passing (GAMP) algorithm is derived that has low algorithmic complexity and is trivially parallelizable. The result is a comprehensive methodology that can be used to estimate time-varying parameter regressions with arbitrarily large number of exogenous predictors. In a forecasting exercise for U.S. price inflation this methodology is shown to work very well.

Keywords: high-dimensional inference; factor graph; Belief Propagation; Bayesian shrinkage; time-varying parameter model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C11 C13 C52 C53 C55 C61 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-09-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-for, nep-mac and nep-ore
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96079/1/MPRA_paper_96079.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: High-Dimensional Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Message Passing Algorithms (2021)
Working Paper: High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms (2020)
Working Paper: High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms (2019)
Working Paper: High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms (2019)
Working Paper: Forecasting with many predictors using message passing algorithms (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:96079

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().