Predicting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Sierra Leone using ARIMA model

Emerson Jackson and Edmund Tamuke

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study have uniquely mad use of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models to address the core of the threes objectives set out in view of the focus to add meaningful value to knowledge exploration. The outcome of the research have testify the achievements of this through successful nine months outof-sample forecasts produced from the program codes, with indicating best model choices from the empirical estimation. In addition, the results also provide description of risks produced from the uncertainty Fan Chart, which clearly outlined possible downside and upside risks to tourist visitations in the country. In the conclusion, it was suggested that downside risks to the low level tourist arrival can be managed through collaboration between authorities concerned with the management of tourist arrivals in the country.

Keywords: ARIMA Methodology; Out-of-Sample Forecast; Tourist Arrivals; Sierra Leone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C52 C53 L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-09-13, Revised 2019-12-23
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-ore and nep-tur
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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