Understanding SLL / US$ exchange rate dynamics in Sierra Leone using Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach

Emerson Jackson

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: This study was carried out with the purpose of producing twelve out-of-sample forecast for a univariate exchange rate variable as a way of addressing challenges faced around dollarization issues in the domestic economy. In pursuit of this, the ARIMA model was utilised, with the best model [1,4,7] indicating that the Sierra Leone - Leone [SLL] currency will continue to depreciate against the United States Dollar [US$] throughout most part of the year 2020. This was done on the assumption of Ceteris Paribus condition, and most importantly on the view that past events of the univariate exchange rate variable is a determinant of future outcomes or performances. In a bid to moving forward, policy recommendations have suggested high level collaboration between relevant policy institutions like the Bank of Sierra Leone and the Ministry of Finance to address issues of concern, for example, a boost to the real sector and many more.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins ARIMA; Exchange Rate; Forecast; Sierra Leone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C52 C53 E47 F31 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-01-01, Revised 2020-01-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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