COVID-19 pandemic and world trade: Some analytical notes

Suborna Barua

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The globalization of COVID-19 pandemic is en route to produce a chain of economic impacts worldwide through distortions in global trade and supply chain. The globalization of production and trade shocks in relation to China generate substantial threat to world trade. The aim of this paper is to provide a preliminary and broad-based understanding of likely trade implications of the pandemic. Beginning with an assessment on likely implications for trade between China and the rest of the world, the paper uses a standard trade analysis framework to explain the implications for world trade. The paper then presents a theoretical mapping that shows likely progression and span of trade implications and reviews emerging evidence to identify if real-life outcomes follow the map. The paper concludes that the pandemic is likely to not only introduce new patterns of world trade but also affect trade relations and globalization, making some economies winners and some losers. Given the scarcity of scholarly work on COVID-19’s trade implications, the paper contributes by offering a novel broad-based understanding, which could serve as a basis for advanced analysis. Assessments of the paper could help policy-makers in preparing for a new world order of international trade.

Keywords: COVID-19; coronavirus; coronanomics; globalization; trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E6 F1 F13 F15 F2 F21 F5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-04-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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