Methane Emissions Baseline Forecasts for Saudi Arabia Using the Structural Time Series Model and Autometrics

Anwar Gasim, Lester Hunt and Jeyhun Mikayilov
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Jeyhun Mikayilov: King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Discussion Papers from King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center

Abstract: Reducing methane (CH4) emissions is key to near-term efforts to limit global warming. CH4 is the second most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) in the atmosphere after carbon dioxide (CO2). The production, transport, and consumption of fossil fuels, in addition to waste and agriculture, account for most anthropogenic CH4 emissions globally (IPCC 2018). Although CH4has only a 12-year lifetime in the atmosphere, it is 84 times more potent per ton than CO2 in a 20-year period and 28 times more potent in a 100-year period (IPCC 2018). The drastically stronger short-term potency of CH4 explains why its short-term impact on global warming is considerably greater than that of CO2. Therefore, meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement necessitates not only decarbonization but also significant CH4 emissions reductions, especially in the near term.

Keywords: Belt and Road; Capital expenditure; Circular Carbon Economy; CO2 emissions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 67
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-mfd
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https://www.kapsarc.org/research/publications/meth ... del-and-autometrics/ First version, 2023

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2023-dp03

DOI: 10.30573/KS--2023-DP03

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