Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes

Mehmet Balcilar, Rangan Gupta, Anandamayee Majumdar and Stephen Miller

No 201018, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: This paper provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models with and without Bayesian priors. The non-linear models include non-parametric and semiparametric models, smooth transition autoregressive models and artificial neural network autoregressive models. In addition to gross gaming revenue and taxable sales, we employ recently constructed coincident and leading employment indexes for Nevada’s economy. We conclude that non-linear models generally outperform linear models in forecasting future movements in gross gaming revenue and taxable sales.

Keywords: Forecasting; Linear and non-linear models; Nevada gross gaming revenue; Nevada taxable sales (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2010-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-for and nep-ore
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Related works:
Journal Article: Forecasting Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using coincident and leading employment indexes (2013)
Working Paper: Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes (2011)
Working Paper: Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes (2010)
Working Paper: Forecasting Nevada Gross Gaming Revenue and Taxable Sales Using Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes (2010)
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