Presidential Cycles in the United States and the Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate: Evidence from over Two Centuries of Data

Rangan Gupta and Mark Wohar

No 201874, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the impact of the U.S. presidential cycles on the dollar relative to the British pound over the longest possible monthly period of 1791:01 to 2018:10, based on an Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. The usage of over two centuries of data controls for sample selection bias, while an EGARCH model accommodates for omitted variable bias. We find that over the entire sample period, the Democratic regime does indeed depreciate the dollar relative to the pound. However, when we identify structural breaks based on formal statistical analysis, we find that the full-sample result is primarily driven by the period covering 1827:01 to 1932:09, but in the recent period of 1932:10 to 2018:10, when Democrats have been in power, the dollar has in fact appreciated relative to the pound.

Keywords: Exchange Rate; U.S. Presidential Cycles (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D72 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 7 pages
Date: 2018-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his, nep-mon, nep-ore and nep-pol
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pre:wpaper:201874

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