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Productivity and GDP: International Evidence of Persistence and Trends Over 130 Years of Data

Luis Gil-Alana, Sakiru Solarin and Rangan Gupta

No 202170, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: The degree of persistence of the real gross domestic product per capita, total factor productivity and labour productivity has been examined in a group of 23 developed and developing nations, as well as the overall Euro Area, by evaluating the order of integration of the macroeconomic series over the annual period from 1890 to 2019. As against the conventional use of using integer degrees of differentiation (i.e., 0 for stationarity and 1 in case of unit roots), fractional values have been utilized. The empirical findings suggest evidence for mean reversion in both total factor productivity and the real gross domestic product per capita in Chile, Germany, Netherlands and New Zealand. The results further suggest that mean reversion only occur in labour productivity of Australia. The non-linearity analysis shows that non-linearity in the three series occur only in the U.S and occurs in two of the three series in Chile, Spain and Mexico. The policy implications of the results are enumerated in the body of the paper.

Keywords: Productivity; GDP; persistence; long memory; fractional integration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2021-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff and nep-sea
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