Is Inflation Uncertainty a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? The Inflation-Inflation Uncertainty Nexus and Inflation Targeting in South Africa

Chevaughn van der Westhuizen, Renee van Eyden () and Goodness Aye
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Chevaughn van der Westhuizen: Department of Economics, University of Pretoria
Goodness Aye: Department of Economics, University of Pretoria

No 202254, Working Papers from University of Pretoria, Department of Economics

Abstract: Inflation uncertainty expedites macroeconomic ills and instability in the economy. This paper investigates if inflation uncertainty is potentially a self-fulfilling prophecy in that rising levels of uncertainty serve as a source of higher inflation outcomes and vice versa. In addition, this paper examines the impact of inflation targeting, implemented in South Africa in February 2000, on the level of inflation and inflation uncertainty. Using a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and GARCH-in-mean model and monthly data spanning the period 1970:01 to 2022:05, the empirical outcomes from this study suggest the existence of a bi-directional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, with strong evidence in favour of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis and weaker evidence in support of the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. This study also finds that inflation targeting has contributed significantly to reducing the level of inflation and inflation uncertainty since its adoption as policy framework. Time-varying Granger causality tests accounting for instabilities underscore the above results, namely that inflation uncertainty led to increased inflation uncertainty in the full pre-inflation targeting period, while increased uncertainty led to increased inflation only during the decade preceding inflation targeting. The results heed important policy implications, as it is imperative inflation is kept low, stable and predictable.

Keywords: Inflation; Inflation uncertainty; Inflation targeting; Friedman-Ball hypothesis; Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis; GARCH modelling; time-varying causality tests (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2022-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mon
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