Dlouhá paměť a její vývoj ve výnosech burzovního indexu PX v letech 1997-2009

Long-Term Memory and Its Evolution in Returns of Stock Index PX Between 1997 and 2009

Ladislav Krištoufek ()

Politická ekonomie, 2010, vol. 2010, issue 4, 471-487

Abstract: Long-term memory processes have been extensively examined in recent literature as they provide simple way to test for predictabilty in the underlying process. However, most of the literature interprets the results of estimated Hurst exponent simply by its comparison to its asymptotic limit of 0.5. Therefore, we use moving block bootstrap method for rescaled range and periodogram method. In our analysis of evolution of Hurst exponent between 1997 and 2009, we show that PX experienced persistent behavior which weakened in time. Nevertheless, the returns of PX remain close to confidence interval separating independent and persistent behavior.

Keywords: time series analysis; econophysics; long-range dependence; rescaled range; periodogram (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 G10 G14 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.742

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