Le cycle de l'Uruguay et sa problématique

Jean-Marc Burniaux and Jean Waelbroeck

Revue Économique, 1995, vol. 46, issue 3, 691-701

Abstract: [fre] Cet article présente un bilan des effets économiques du cycle de l'Uruguay, au moyen des travaux qui lui ont été consacrés et notamment du modèle RUNS. Il contraste les résultats modestes dégagés parles modèles, et les conclusions net­tement plus optimistes de l'approche économétrique. Il examine si la prise en compte des économies d'échelle, de la concurrence imparfaite et du chômage réduiraient cette discordance. Enfin, il examine dans quelle mesure le commerce avec les pays en développement est une cause majeure du déséquilibre entre l'offre et la demande de travailleurs non qualifiés. [eng] Methodological issues in assessments of the economic impact or the Uruguay rond. This article presents an assessment of the economic effects of the Uruguay round. It dis­cusses the sharp difference between the modest welfare gains suggested by model simu­lations and the more optimistic ones which econometric calculations suggest, and asks whether the discrepancy be reduced if the estimates took account of increasing returns, imperfect competition and changes in unemployment. It also examines whether the impact of trade with developing countries accounts for the deterioration of the labour market for unskilled workers.

Date: 1995
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1995.409679
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