How Do Household Coping Strategies Evolve with Increased Food Insecurity? An Examination of Nigeria's Food Price Shock of 2015-2018

Justin Quinton, Glenn Jenkins () and Godwin Olasehinde-Williams
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Justin Quinton: Department of Economics, Queens University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada

No 2024-04, Development Discussion Papers from JDI Executive Programs

Abstract: Faced with a significant devaluation of its currency and a surge in food prices, the Nigerian government opted to prohibit the use of foreign currency for food imports. This policy essentially blocked the importation of numerous essential food items into the country under the guise of stimulating domestic output of these staples. Consequently, food prices in Nigeria increased despite a global decline in food prices. With the rise in food prices, the incidence and severity of household food insecurity in Nigeria also escalated. This study examines the changes in the types and severity of coping mechanisms for food insecurity resulting from the food price shock caused by the combined impact of an oil price crash, currency devaluation, and restrictions on foreign exchange. Specifically, Nigeria's General Household Survey Panel data from 2012 and 2015, during periods of high oil prices, was compared with data from 2018 when oil prices had persistently remained low, the currency had been devalued, and the treasury had been depleted. Alongside detailed descriptive statistics, logistic and hurdle regressions are also employed for statistical analysis. Our findings indicate a significant rise in the percentage of Nigerian households grappling with food insecurity from 2015 to 2018. During this period, 68.7% of households resorted to at least one coping mechanism, and nearly one-third (31.8%) of households adopted six or more coping strategies. Concerning the severity of these coping methods, 43.2% of all households in Nigeria had to resort to severe coping strategies. The issue is not primarily a result of natural disasters or conflicts but rather stems from a failure in macroeconomic and agricultural economic policies. Overall, our findings confirm that these policies come at a great cost to current generations—particularly female-headed households, single-parent households, households headed by elderly people, and other vulnerable populations, pushing them deeper into food insecurity.

Keywords: Food insecurity; Nigeria; Oil price; Economic shock; Food policy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D10 E2 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34 Pages
Date: 2024-04-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
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