Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, And Output Growth

Gregor Smith

No 1310, Working Paper from Economics Department, Queen's University

Abstract: Interwar macroeconomic history is a natural place to look for evidence on the correlation between output growth and inflation or unexpected inflation. We apply time-series methods to measure unexpected inflation for more than twenty countries using both retail andwholesale prices. There is a significant, positive correlation between output growth andinflation for the entire period. There is little evidence that this correlation is caused by an underlying role for unexpected inflation. For wholesale price inflation in particular theoutput declines associated with deflations were larger than the output increases associatedwith inflations of the same scale.

Keywords: inflation expectations; interwar period; Great Depression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 N10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 30 pages
Date: 2013-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-his and nep-mac
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https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_1310.pdf First version 2013 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Interwar Inflation, Unexpected Inflation, and Output Growth (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:qed:wpaper:1310

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