A Fractionally Cointegrated Var Analysis Of Economic Voting And Political Support

Maggie Jones, Morten Nielsen and Michal Popiel

No 1326, Working Paper from Economics Department, Queen's University

Abstract: We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long-run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.

Keywords: Economic voting; fractional cointegration; political economy; vector autoregressive model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2014-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (40)

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https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_1326.pdf First version 2014 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support (2014)
Journal Article: A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support (2014)
Working Paper: A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:qed:wpaper:1326

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