Can Trade Agreements Curtail Trade Creation and Prevent Trade Diversion

Juyoung Cheong (jcheong@khu.ac.kr), Do Won Kwak (dwkwak@korea.ac.kr) and Kam Ki Tang

No 500, Discussion Papers Series from University of Queensland, School of Economics

Abstract: Despite recent theoretical literature highlighting the cross effects between preferential trade agreements (PTAs), like the domino effect and the competitive liberalization theory, little has been done to quantify their impact on bilateral trade flows. This paper investigates how preexisting PTAs dilute (shield) the trade creation (diversion) effect of new PTAs. Countries having pre-existing PTAs enjoy smaller gains in intra-bloc trade because of the dilution effect, and experience smaller losses or even gains in extra-bloc trade because of the shielding effect. The findings support the proposition that PTAs could be used to fend off future trade diversion.

Date: 2014-02-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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Journal Article: Can Trade Agreements Curtail Trade Creation and Prevent Trade Diversion? (2015)
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