¿Can Peru be a New Economic Miracle?

Raymundo Chirinos ()
Additional contact information
Raymundo Chirinos: Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

No 2008-003, Working Papers from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Abstract: This paper estimates the probability that Peru becomes a new economic miracle. However, since economic theory does not define what exactly an economic miracle is, we must develop a definition based on the top quintile of the distribution of maximum 10-, 15- and 20-year average rates of growth over the period 1961-2002. By using this criterion, we identify 19 “miracle” economies, which will be compared with a similar number of “average” and “disaster” economies. Through a ordered choice model based on a set of initial conditions we determine the probability that Peru lies in the first group over the next 10, 15 and 20 years. The probability that Peru becomes a miracle in the next 10 years is very high; however, the evidence is less conclusive for longer periods.

Keywords: milagro económico; condiciones iniciales; modelo de elección ordenada (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 O49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lam
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documen ... -Trabajo-03-2008.pdf Application/pdf

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2008-003

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Research Unit ().