Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters

Miguel Saldarriaga

No 2018-008, Working Papers from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú

Abstract: This paper identifies 101 credit boom episodes, i.e. periods of exceptional credit growth, in a sample of 115 countries for 1960-2014, and compares the results for commodity exporters and non-commodity exporters. I find that there is no difference in the number and duration of credit booms between commodity exporters and non-commodity exporters, but around two thirds of credit booms in the last four decades in commodity exporters have been associated with high commodity prices. In addition, I find that business cycles dynamics are more exacerbated during a credit boom episode in commodity exporters than in non-commodity exporters, and domestic demand variables tend to end below the trend after the peak of a credit boom. A frequency analysis shows that commodity exporters have a higher likelihood of having credit booms ending in a banking crisis and this result is confirmed by a regression analysis. However, commodity exporters do not have a higher incidence of having a credit boom, and net capital inflows and credit growth remain as the main predictors of these episodes.

Keywords: Commodity prices; credit booms; banking crises (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 E51 G01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documen ... trabajo-008-2018.pdf Application/pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2018-008

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from Banco Central de Reserva del Perú Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Research Unit ().