Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations

Tobias Rossmann
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Tobias Rossmann: LMU Munich

No 160, Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series from CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition

Abstract: Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals\' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This paper uses the panel dimension of household surveys to study individual-level heterogeneity in this measure of individual uncertainty. The results provide evidence for the existence of considerable heterogeneity in individuals\' response behavior and inflation expectations.

Keywords: uncertainty; inflation; expectations; mixture models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 D80 D83 D84 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-06-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-upt
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