Uncertainty about Carbon Impact and the Willingness to Avoid CO2 Emissions

Davide Pace, Taisuke Imai, Peter Schwardmann and Joel van der Weele
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Davide Pace: LMU Munich
Taisuke Imai: Osaka University
Peter Schwardmann: Carnegie Mellon University
Joel van der Weele: Tinbergen Institute

No 470, Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series from CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition

Abstract: With a large representative survey (N=1,128), we document that consumers are very uncertain about the emissions associated with various actions, which may affect their willingness to reduce their carbon footprint. We experimentally test two channels for the behavioural impact of such uncertainty, namely risk aversion about the impact of mitigating actions and the formation of motivated beliefs about this impact. In two large online experiments (N=2,219), participants make incentivized trade-offs between personal gain and (uncertain) carbon impact. We find no evidence that uncertainty affects individual climate change mitigation efforts through risk aversion or motivated belief channels. The results suggest that reducing consumer uncertainty through information campaigns is not a policy panacea and that communicating scientific uncertainty around climate impact need not backfire.

Date: 2023-12-02
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