Evaluating Strange Forecasts: The Curious Case of Football Match Scorelines

J Reade, Carl Singleton and Alasdair Brown ()
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Alasdair Brown: School of Economics, University of East Anglia

No em-dp2019-18, Economics Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of Reading

Abstract: This study analyses point forecasts for a common set of events. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. The event outcomes were low-probability but had more predictable sub-outcomes, upon which they were also judged. Hence, the forecasts were multi-dimensional, complicating any evaluation. The events were association football matches in the English Premier League. The forecasts were of exact scoreline outcomes. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model suited to predicting football match scorelines. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.

Keywords: Forecasting; Statistical modelling; Regression models; Prediction markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 G14 G17 L83 Z2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 38 pages
Date: 2019-06-01, Revised 2020-08-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-spo
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published in Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 2021, 68(2): 261-285, https://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12264

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http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp201918v3.pdf Revised version, 2020 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines (2021)
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