Evaluating the Macroeconomic Impact of IMF Programs in Sudan
Muayad Ismail
No em-dp2020-21, Economics Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of Reading
Abstract:
This paper applies a combination of quantitative techniques, namely the Generalized Evaluation Estimator (GEE) and Synthetic Control Method (SCM), to assess the impact of IMF programs implemented in Sudan on the performance of real GDP growth, inflation, and the current account balance. The two applied methods provide empirical evidence that IMF programs in Sudan were effective in reducing inflation during program periods, albeit with short-lived effects thereafter. However, conclusions drawn by the two approaches are divergent regarding the effects of IMF programs on GDP growth and the current account balance. While the GEE approach fails to detect any significant effects of Fund programs on growth and the current account balance for the entire sample period, the SCM concludes that the effects on growth (current account) have been positive (negative). Further, the GEE approach finds positive and significant effects of IMF programs on GDP growth when the analysis is restricted to cover IMF Staff Monitored Program (SMP) periods only. Notwithstanding these positive effects, the analysis indicates that deliberately keeping inflation rates very low during SMP program periods could have possibly constrained higher rates of GDP growth during the same periods.
Keywords: IMF Programs; Generalized Evaluation Estimator; Synthetic Control; Stand-By Arrangements; Staff Monitored Programs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E65 F33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 40 pages
Date: 2020-10-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev and nep-mac
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.reading.ac.uk/web/FILES/economics/emdp202021.pdf
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2020-21
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Economics Discussion Papers from Department of Economics, University of Reading Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Alexander Mihailov (a.mihailov@reading.ac.uk).