A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts

Dimitrios Papastamos, George Matysiak and Simon Stevenson ()
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Dimitrios Papastamos: Eurobank EFG Property Services S.A
George Matysiak: Master Management Group and Krakow University of Economics
Simon Stevenson: School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading

Real Estate & Planning Working Papers from Henley Business School, University of Reading

Abstract: We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.

Date: 2014-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-ure
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