Expectation Formation

Basit Zafar and Theresa Kuchler
Additional contact information
Theresa Kuchler: NYU Stern School of Business

No 678, 2015 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics

Abstract: We use novel survey panel data to estimate how personal experiences affect expectations about aggregate economic outcomes in housing and labor markets. We exploit cross-sectional and time series variation in differences in locally experienced house prices to show that respondents systematically extrapolate from personally experienced home prices when asked for their expectations about US house price development. In addition, higher volatility of locally experienced house prices causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected future national house price movements. We find similar results for labor market expectations, where we exploit within-individual variation in labor market status to estimate the effect of own experience on national labor market expectations. Personally experiencing unemployment leads respondents to be significantly more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. Extrapolation from personal experiences is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals for both housing and unemployment expectations.

Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2015/paper_678.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:red:sed015:678

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in 2015 Meeting Papers from Society for Economic Dynamics Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Christian Zimmermann ().