Determinants of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia

Ivana Marjanoviæ () and Milan Markoviæ ()
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Ivana Marjanoviæ: University of Niš, Innovation Center, Univerzitetski trg 2, 18000 Niš, Serbia
Milan Markoviæ: University of Niš, Innovation Center, Univerzitetski trg 2, 18000 Niš, Serbia

Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, 2019, vol. 37, issue 1, 191-212

Abstract: The aim of this study is to overcome the lack of empirical research dealing with the main factors of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia, analyzing periods of currency crises and creating an early warning system to anticipate the upcoming currency crises. Using econometric analysis, this paper examines the determinants of currency crises episodes during the period from January 2007 to May 2018, and based on this, it makes proposals for economic policy makers. It has been shown that dominant factors are those that bind mostly with the effect of factors from the external environment, which is important in assessing and forecasting potential crises in the Republic of Serbia. More specifically, the obtained results indicate that the overvaluation of the national currency, current account balance as a percentage of GDP, imports and stock exchange index are statistically significant variables.

Keywords: currency crisis; early warning system; EMP index; probit model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 F30 F31 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rfe:zbefri:v:37:y:2019:i:1:p:191-212

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