Policy Response to Pandemic Influenza: The Value of Collective Action

Georgiy Bobashev, Maureen Cropper, Joshua Epstein, Michael Goedecke, Stephen Hutton and A. Over

RFF Working Paper Series from Resources for the Future

Abstract: This paper examines positive externalities and complementarities between countries in the use of antiviral pharmaceuticals to mitigate pandemic influenza. It demonstrates the presence of treatment externalities in simple SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) models and simulations of a Global Epidemiological Model. In these simulations, the pandemic spreads from city to city through the international airline network and from cities to rural areas through ground transport. While most treatment benefits are private, spillovers suggest that it is in the self-interest of high-income countries to pay for some antiviral treatment in low-income countries. The most cost-effective policy is to donate doses to the country where the outbreak originates; however, donating doses to low-income countries in proportion to their populations may also be cost-effective. These results depend on the transmissibility of the flu strain, its start date, the efficacy of antivirals in reducing transmissibility, and the proportion of infectious people who can be identified and treated.

Keywords: pandemic influenza; disease control externalities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C63 D62 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-09-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp and nep-hea
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: Policy Response to Pandemic Influenza: The Value of Collective Action (2011)
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