Forecast Models for Private Consumption

Aleksandr Peussa

No 34, ETLA Reports from The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy

Abstract: Abstract The share of private consumption in gross domestic product is significant; therefore, private consumption has a great influence on economic growth, which makes it a major concept in economics. The purpose of the paper is to estimate and evaluate different forecasting models for private consumption. The first part of the paper focuses on the aggregate consumption. The models are estimated using yearly and quarterly data. The goal of second part of the paper is to estimate and evaluate forecasting models for the components of private consumption. Private consumption can be divided by the duration principle or by product categories. There are three competing statistical models for components of private consumption. All models are presented in the second part of the report and the aim is to choose the best model using statistical methods of model evaluation (R-squared, AIC, BIC).

Keywords: Aggregate consumption; Private consumption; Economic forecasts; Logistic regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C43 C52 C53 C82 E21 E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 114 pages
Date: 2014-10-14
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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