European Trade & Growth Imbalances: An Analysis using a Sign-Restriction Bayesian-GVAR with Stochastic Volatility

Peter McAdam (), Kostas Mouratidis, Theodore Panagiotidis and Georgios Papapanagiotou

Working Paper series from Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis

Abstract: The persistent trade and economic imbalances between the south and north euro area countries generated severe strains for the euro following the global financial crisis. We assess alternative scenarios to restore the trade imbalances within the euro area. We use a Bayesian VECM SVAR with stochastic volatility in a Global-VAR, in which theory-consistent, long- and short-run restrictions are imposed.

Keywords: European North-South Divide; Global VAR; Structural Impulse Response Analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 E27 F14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-int
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rim:rimwps:23-12

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