Determinants of Systemic Risk and Information Dissemination

Marcelo Bianconi, Xiaxin Hua () and Chih Ming Tan
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Xiaxin Hua: Department of Economics, Clark University, USA

Working Paper series from Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis

Abstract: We study the effects of two measures of information dissemination on the determination of systemic risk. One measure is print-media consumer sentiment based while the other is volatility based. We find evidence that while the volatility measure (VIX) of future expectations has a more significant direct impact upon systemic risk of financial firms under distress, a consumer sentiment measure based on print-media news does impact upon firm’s financial stress via the externality of other firm’s financial stress. This latter effect is robust even though the VIX and the consumer sentiment have dynamic feedback in the short one and two-day horizon in levels, and contemporaneously in volatility. In reference to the internet bubble of the 1990s, the consumer sentiment measure predicts larger systemic risk in the whole period of exuberance while the VIX predicts a sharp larger systemic risk in the height of the bubble. Our evidence suggests that print-media consumer sentiment might be dominated by the VIX when predicting systemic risk.

Keywords: conditional value-at-risk; VIX; externality; consumer sentiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G00 G14 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-ict and nep-rmg
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Journal Article: Determinants of systemic risk and information dissemination (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rim:rimwps:67_13

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