Modelling and forecasting short-term electricity load: a two step methodology

Lacir J. Soares and Marcelo Medeiros ()
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Lacir J. Soares: Department of Electrical Engineering

No 495, Textos para discussão from Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil)

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to develop a forecasting model of the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by an utility company located in the southeast of Brazil. A di®erent model is constructed for each hour of day, thus there are 24 di®erent models. Each model is based on a decomposition of the daily series of each hour in two components. The ¯rst component is purely deterministic and is related to trends, seasonality, and special days e®ect. The second one is stochastic and follows a linear autoregressive model. The multi-step forecasting performance of the proposed methodology is compared with a benchmark model and the results indicate that our proposal is a useful tool for electricity load forecasting.

Pages: 21p.
Date: 2005-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rio:texdis:495

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