Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007–2016

Benno Ferrarini ()
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Benno Ferrarini: Asian Development Bank

No 568, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: This paper assesses the accuracy of Asian Development Outlook growth and inflation forecasts for 43 Asian economies from 2007 to 2016, against the benchmark of World Economic Outlook projections by the International Monetary Fund. They are found to overlap quite closely, notwithstanding much heterogeneity across countries and years. Forecast accuracy sharpens over time as additional data and evidence become available and get incorporated during quarterly revisions. However, errors widen during crisis years as forecasters struggle to reflect such events in their projections.

Keywords: Asian Development Bank; Asian Development Outlook; International Monetary Fund; macroeconomic forecasts; World Economic Outlook (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 69 pages
Date: 2019-01-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for, nep-mac and nep-sea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:adbewp:0568

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