The Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Fertilizer Prices, and Food Security: Evidence from Rice-Producing Economies in Asia

Ashok Mishra (), Harold Glenn Valera (), Takashi Yamano () and Valerien Pede ()
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Ashok Mishra: Arizona State University
Takashi Yamano: Asian Development Bank
Valerien Pede: International Rice Research Institute

No 724, ADB Economics Working Paper Series from Asian Development Bank

Abstract: This study assesses the impact of increased fertilizer prices under different scenarios on rice production, consumption, trade and prices. Using a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework, the simulation results show that a 30% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices would reduce rice yields by 0.45% to 1.33%, but increase world rice prices by 7% to 23% between 2022 and 2025. As the world market price for rice increases significantly, rice trade and rice consumption will decrease accordingly, estimated at 1.7% to 7.0% and 0.27% to 0.78%, respectively. The simulation results also show that retail prices for rice would increase significantly in all rice-consuming countries. The impact of higher fertilizer prices would vary widely in the major rice-producing countries.

Keywords: rice; world prices; Asia; rice trade; food security; partial equilibrium model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F51 Q17 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 47 pages
Date: 2024-04-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cis, nep-int, nep-sea and nep-tra
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