Canada’s “COVID-19 Referendum”: Voting in the Early Federal Election of 2021

Joseph Marchand and Yuhan Wang ()
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Yuhan Wang: University of Alberta, Department of Economics, Postal: 8-14 HM Tory Building, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2H4

No 2024-11, Working Papers from University of Alberta, Department of Economics

Abstract: Canada’s 2021 federal election was called early, two years after its previous 2019 election, rather than four years. The Liberal government’s perceived opportunity was to turn minority rule into a majority, based on their ongoing COVID-19 pandemic response and perfect incumbent success rate of recent provincial elections. Harmonizing official voting data of electoral districts to COVID data of more aggregate health regions, this is the first study to examine COVID-19 and voting in Canada, currently on the precipice of another election. Overall, COVID severity was associated with reduced voter turnout in the 2021 election, compared with 2019, as well as an increase in the Liberal vote share and a decrease in the Conservative vote share. Although these findings may have been anticipated, voters in Conservative dominant areas turned out more than voters in Liberal dominant areas, which may not have been anticipated, leading to Liberal gains well below a majority.

Keywords: Canada; COVID-19; Early Elections; Public Health; Voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H12 H51 I18 K16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2024-12-31
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
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