The economic impact of the Russian import ban: A CGE analysis

Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova

No 2015-3, DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes from Directorate General for Trade, European Commission

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to assess the economic impact of the Russian embargo from 7 August 2014 on certain agricultural food products from the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia. The effects of this economic sanction are analysed in the framework of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a particular focus on bilateral and total exports, production and welfare. The detailed, based on real trade data, calibration of the model allows for an exact identification of the sectoral shares and prohibitive tariffs aggregated to match the CGE model’s sectoral level of aggregation. In addition, the paper carries on a validation exercise to compare the model’s predictions with real trade data developments. The modelling simulation results show that the impact of the ban on total exports of the EU, the USA, Norway, Canada and Australia are limited. Total extra-EU exports decline by merely 0.12%. Nevertheless at a disaggregate level there are sectors – ‘vegetables and fruits’, ‘other meat’ and ‘dairy products’ – which experience two digit percentage change declines.

Keywords: International trade; Agri-food embargo; CGE modelling; Russia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F13 F17 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2015-01-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cis, nep-cmp and nep-int
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Journal Article: The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis (2017)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2015_003

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