The economic impact of sanctions and Russian countermeasures following the Russian invasion of Ukraine until the 5th EU sanctions package

Lars Nilsson (), Alessandro Antimiani and Schmitz Jan
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Lars Nilsson: DG Trade
Alessandro Antimiani: DG Trade
Schmitz Jan: DG Trade

No 2022-4, DG TRADE Chief Economist Notes from Directorate General for Trade, European Commission

Abstract: We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model analysis to show estimates of the medium-term economic impact of the sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and related Russian countermeasures. Sanctions covered are those legally in place and announced against Russia and Belarus by Canada, the EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, the UK, the US, and countersanctions by Russia until 25 March 2022. The results simulating the impact of those measures point to a reduction in Russian GDP of 3.7%, amounting to a strong recession, at a level rarely seen in such modelling exercises. EU GDP would fall more modestly by 0.08%.

Keywords: Russian invasion of Ukraine; sanctions; economic modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2023-04-17
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-int
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2022_004

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