Regional Business Cycles in East Asia: Synchronization and its Determinants

Young-Joon Park ()
Additional contact information
Young-Joon Park: Ajou University

East Asian Economic Review, 2013, vol. 17, issue 2, 103-128

Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation- specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regional synchronization. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and China are decoupling from regional business cycles. The driver of monetary aggregate is the most significant determinant of regional fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas oil price and productivity are on average important driving forces of nation-specific fluctuations of real economic activities.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Synchronization; Decoupling; East Asia; Factor Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 F00 F44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2013.17.2.261 Full text (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:eaerev:0057

Access Statistics for this article

East Asian Economic Review is currently edited by JE Lee

More articles in East Asian Economic Review from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy [30147] 3rd Floor Building C Sejong National Research Complex 370 Sicheong-daero Sejong-si, Korea. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by JE Lee ().