The Effect of Weather Uncertainty on the Financial Risk of Green Electricity Producers under Various Renewable Policies

Stephan Nagl ()

No 2013-15, EWI Working Papers from Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)

Abstract: In recent years, many countries have implemented policies to incentivize renewable power generation. In this paper, we analyze the variance in profits of renewable-based electricity producers due to weather uncertainty under a `feed-in tari ff' policy, a `fixed bonus' incentive and a `renewable quota' obligation. In a first step, we discuss the price eff ects of fluctuations in the feed-in from renewables and their impact on the risk for green electricity producers. In a second step, we numerically solve the problem by applying a spatial stochastic equilibrium model to the European electricity market. The simulation results allow us to discuss the variance in profits under the di fferent renewable support mechanisms and how di fferent technologies are a ffected by weather uncertainty. The analysis suggests that wind producers benefit from market integration, whereas producers from biomass and solar plants face a larger variance in profits. Furthermore, the simulation indicates that highly volatile green certificate prices occur when introducing a renewable quota obligation without the option of banking and borrowing. Thus, all renewable producers face a higher variance in profits, as the price eff ect of weather uncertainty on green certificates overcompensates the negatively correlated fluctuations in production and prices.

Keywords: RES-E policy; financial risk; mixed complementarity problem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 L50 Q40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 35 pages
Date: 2013-06-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env, nep-eur and nep-reg
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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