Graphing And Measuring COVID’s First Wave Impact On The Bolivian Economy

Gover Barja Daza

No 4/2021, Documentos de trabajo from Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana

Abstract: The Bolivian monthly index of economic activity along with ARMA models are used in an attempt to graph and measure the impact of Covid’s pandemic on the Bolivian economy. The accumulated difference between the observed and counterfactual values show an overall 12.6% loss of economic activity in the 10 months from February to November 2020 of the first Covid wave, with a tilted W-shape short-run recovery just before the beginning of the second wave in December 2020. Break[1]down into the twelve Bolivian economic sectors show wide heterogeneity in depth of impact and speeds of recovery during the same period. Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC) de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo".

Keywords: COVID-19; Interrupted time series analysis; ARMA-GARCH models; Bolivia; Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Economicas; IISEC. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 E37 O54 Y10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 50 pages
Date: 2021-06-22
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:iisecd:2021_004

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