The Effects of US-China Rivalry on Latin America and Their Implications

Sungwoo Hong (), Yeo Joon Yoon (), Jino Kim (), Jeewoon Rim () and Jimin Nam ()
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Sungwoo Hong: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Yeo Joon Yoon: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Jino Kim: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Jeewoon Rim: KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP), Postal: [30147] , Building C, Sejong National Research Complex, , 370, Sicheong-daero, , Sejong-si, Korea, https://www.kiep.go.kr/eng/
Jimin Nam: Ministry of Foreign Affairs Korea, Postal: [03172] Center for Korea-Latin America Cooperation, Room 1108, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sajik-ro 8-gil, Jongno-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea, https://energia.mofa.go.kr/

No 21-4, World Economy Brief from Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Abstract: The conflict between the United States and China may be the issue of most importance as well as interest to the world, prior to COVID-19. This conflict between the two countries is appearing not only in the economic sector, but also in various field such as politics, diplomacy, and military affairs. Such competition between the two countries is likely to escalate further as multilateral systems such as the WTO are threatened and protectionism intensifies in the post-COVID-19 world. Even within Latin America, the competition between the two countries frequently appears in a variety of forms. Conflicts between the United States and China in Latin America tend to occur mainly in the infrastructure sectors. Furthermore, the United States pressured Latin American countries to choose between the United States and China, with the results of this pressure depending on the political orientation of the ruling government. In order to investigate the impact of retaliatory tariffs between the two countries on Latin American countries’ exports and welfare, we employ an event analysis for exports and computational general equilibrium (CGE) model for welfare, with Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Chile as the subject of our analysis. Based on the outcome of the event study, Brazil’s exports to the United States moderately increased due to the tariff imposition, and such an effect persisted for short term. Its exports to China rose considerably immediately after the tariff imposition, and then the impact tended to decrease over time. By contrast, it is difficult to conclude that the tariff imposition had a statistically significant and lasting effect on the exports of the remaining three countries to the United States and China. As a result of the analysis using the CGE model, meanwhile, the tariffs imposed between the United States and China trivially increased the welfare of Latin American countries.

Keywords: US-China; Latin America; rivalry; conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 6 pages
Date: 2021-02-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp, nep-cna and nep-int
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2021_004

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