Effects of Rising Base Rates on Major Manufacturing Industries and Policymaking

Hyun Seok Kim ()
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Hyun Seok Kim: Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, Postal: Sejong National Research Complex, Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, 370 Sicheong Dae-ro C-dong 8-12F 30147, Republic of Korea, http://www.kiet.re.kr

No 22/1, i-KIET Issues and Analysis from Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade

Abstract: Soaring inflationary pressure and the ripple effects of the base rate spikes by the US Federal Reserve are expected to lead the Bank of Korea (BOK) to raise its base rate at least three times during the remainder of 2022. Korean firms rely primarily on indirect financing for their financial needs as the Korean capital market is strongly bank-based. However, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are far more dependent than large corporations on indirect financing. Monetary policy changes involving interest rates therefore exert a significantly greater impact on SMEs than they do on large corporations, and changes in monetary policy are estimated to transfer greater costs onto SMEs than onto large corporations. Whether in the short term or the long term, the burden of rising interest rates faced by SMEs is greater than that faced by large corporations. Low liquidity, high inflation rates, negative consumer sentiment, and excessive outstanding debt all threaten to increase risks to Korean capital markets today. Industries dominated by SMEs are expected to see their interest coverage ratios drop significantly and the percentage of zombie firms grow amid rising interest rates. This paper identifies the proactive policy action necessary needed to minimize the repercussions of rising base rates on industries where SMEs are concentrated.

Keywords: capital markets; interest rates; monetary policy; Korea; base rate; small and medium-sized enterprises; SMEs; zombie firms; zombies; inflation; consumer sentiment; debt; financing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 G18 G21 G23 G28 G32 G33 G38 H12 H24 H25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16 pages
Date: 2022-04-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mon
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